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The Mirandolan looks at how changes in the capital cycle within an industry will affect future returns or how the competitive position of a company will change according to changes in the industry’s supply side. It represents my views on the investment environment around the world, often with particular stock examples. Aside from identifying favoured areas for investment, the newsletter often highlights the excesses and peculiarities which regularly occur in stock markets, posing threats to investors. In all instances, I seek to buy where prices reflect unreasonably low expectations for future growth.
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What are Capital Cycles?
High returns invite excessive competition and capital spending, creating excess capacity while grinding economic earnings down to the cost of capital, whereupon, capital exits, excess capacity is destroyed and competition is diminished, a process of creative destruction. The ebb and flow of capital works in a predictable, cyclical manner, what Marathon Asset Management calls, the “capital cycle”, a concept pursued in Edward Chancellor’s book, Capital Returns, a compilation of reports written by Marathon’s portfolio managers.
The Mirandolan is written by me, Joseph Noko and reflects my investment decisions and thinking. Over the last 15 years, I have been a gold miner, exploited arbitrage opportunities in the scrap metal business, written peer-reviewed papers on philosophy, finance and economics, and a book chapter in Money in a Human Economy. My Google Scholar profile is here. You can visit my website, The Mirandolan, which features my “best of” posts, and you can catch me on Twitter.
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On occasion, I may discuss a specific business or asset class and I may even make it the focus of a blog post. These posts do not in any way constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold, or a promise or guarantee of a return or fitness of that investment idea for you. Please take a moment to read the following disclaimer regarding the information we post on this site. The key thing to remember here is that I am posting my ideas that may or may not be suitable to your specific investment situation. Please consult your personal financial advisor for questions on the appropriateness of any of the ideas discussed on this site. Do your own research. Own the idea. Nothing I say and nothing on this site should be considered personal financial advice.
All information contained herein is provided “as is” and The Mirandolan expressly disclaims making any express or implied warranties with respect to the fitness of the information contained herein for any particular usage, application or purpose. Prior to making any investment decision you should consult with professional financial, legal and tax advisers to determine the appropriateness of the risks associated with such an investment. No assurance can be given that the objectives of a particular investment will be achieved or that an investor will receive a return of all or part of his or her investment. All investments involve the risk of loss, including the loss of principal. In no event shall The Mirandolan be responsible or liable for the correctness of any material used herein or for any damage or lost opportunities resulting from the use of such material.
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